Zero 7, Sven Van Hees and Nitin Sawnhey (or the Cafe Del Mar, Om Lounge, or Luftkastellet compilations) I grew ever more enchanted. However even then I sensed somehow that this form would at some point become unfashionable and I would have to move on with the times. I'd invested a great deal of time and money into learning about (and purchasing) music within this genre. I was entrenched - Kuhnian-style - within this paradigm (see earlier blog entry). However I was determinded to avoid the fate of those aging rock 'n' rollers that I remembered seeing around in the nineteen seventies. They were still decked out in their drainpipes and crepe shoes, refusing to let go of a brilliant but outmoded form from twenty years earlier.
Needless to say chillout, after a desperate but ultimately futile rebranding as downtempo died out somewhere around 2005.
Look, there are a whole lot of bloggers who are far more knowledgable about ITIL than I am, and have better things to say on the subject than me (stand up Rob England a.k.a The IT Skeptic), but I've noticed something recently. It's this: perhaps ITIL has passed its Peak Oil moment. And you know what, maybe many people have noticed this and I'm just slow. Or it could be that I've just up and blurted out that the Emperor is wearing no clothes when you all knew it anyway but just didn't want to say. I mean, look at the anecdotal stuff - there used to so many vacancies for incident and problem managers on Jobserve and the other boards. Now there are hardly any. To coroborate this unscientific observation I went and had a look at the IT Job Stats website which offered me the demand graph above for jobs asking for ITIL Certification. Ouch. The IT Jobs Watch site offers a similarly depressing scenario for those who have wedded their career to ITIL; both the contract and permanent markets are showing a scary fall in advertised positions. Yet demand for some generic roles such as business analyst is still holding up in both the contract and permanent sectors.
The whole ITIL-in-decline thing is just a bit of a hunch and I'm interested to understand what others out there are thinking about this subject. Also, it's not just the job stats, I've noticed that some respected commentators are moving away from aligning themselves too closely to ITIL as they once did, and are starting to blog about ISO/IEC 20000 or CoBIT, or IT governance in general. These are people who are thought leaders worth following. I'll add to this stuff that Rob England has been saying for years about the lack of proven ROI as regards ITIL. I've heard it said on good authority by a senior mover in industry that while ITIL is recognised as having descriptive and conceptual benefits, the lack of proven ROI mean that leaders have already abandoned the idea that it is a tool that can help deliver a competitive advantage. He quoted the words of the CIO of a large firm "ITIL is just common terminology and a thing of the past. It’s only remaining value is that it makes it easier to engage outsourcers that support ITIL".
Here's some more numbers. Google Trends appears to suggest that searches for ITIL seem to be on a downward trajectory both in the United Kingdom and worldwide.
There are many reasons why this hunch may be wrong. The economic situation may be causing a contraction of the demand for ITIL staff or perhaps knowledge of ITIL has become widely embedded and people have less of a need to search for it on Google to find out what it's all about. Let's hope so. However, I do kinda have faith in my hunches. Especially this one. Humans seek novelty, it's one of our defining characteristics. If that wasn't the case we'd still be listening to doo-wop and rock and roll instead of the industrial, gabber and noizecore genres that youngsters are getting off on. Apparently. And chillout is still kicking around - there's an internet radio station in the mountains of Ouray, Colorado that continues to play the very best examples of the genre. The vast majority of the rest of us have moved on to new things. Perhaps then a view of the future of ITIL.